* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 69 73 81 88 96 103 106 105 108 107 107 100 95 88 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 69 73 81 88 96 103 106 105 108 107 58 37 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 66 70 82 99 112 121 120 113 108 100 56 36 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 3 3 6 3 4 6 10 11 18 26 26 25 29 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 -3 0 -5 -6 -6 -5 -4 -7 -7 -6 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 257 279 303 188 186 128 160 143 191 194 207 210 234 233 258 253 267 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 137 137 139 152 160 162 166 151 155 155 154 152 151 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 118 120 121 124 138 145 148 150 135 136 132 125 120 118 119 121 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -53.6 -53.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -50.2 -49.4 -49.2 -48.9 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 8 9 6 9 6 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 49 50 53 51 51 49 49 50 55 58 56 54 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 23 23 26 28 31 34 35 35 39 41 45 45 47 46 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 -6 0 2 19 13 16 14 21 9 11 2 15 3 28 33 200 MB DIV -37 -5 23 -17 -23 -7 -10 15 -9 41 13 46 39 51 40 51 18 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -7 0 2 -1 4 3 11 7 3 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1260 1208 1156 1098 1045 950 899 895 937 741 464 182 4 -74 -92 -96 -111 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.5 26.2 27.0 28.1 29.3 30.9 32.7 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.1 56.8 57.6 58.5 60.7 63.3 66.2 69.1 72.0 74.6 76.7 77.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 23 24 31 35 36 37 40 26 34 42 23 15 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 14. 20. 21. 23. 22. 22. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 28. 36. 43. 46. 45. 48. 47. 47. 40. 35. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.5 55.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 18.3% 11.9% 10.4% 8.3% 16.1% 15.5% 15.3% Logistic: 3.6% 21.7% 15.1% 6.7% 4.4% 12.6% 13.9% 16.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 3.8% 14.3% 9.2% 5.7% 4.2% 9.6% 9.8% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 65 69 73 81 88 96 103 106 105 108 107 58 37 30 28 18HR AGO 60 59 62 66 70 78 85 93 100 103 102 105 104 55 34 27 25 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 64 72 79 87 94 97 96 99 98 49 28 21 19 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 62 69 77 84 87 86 89 88 39 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT