* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 60 63 70 75 72 67 65 62 55 48 45 41 42 43 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 60 63 70 75 72 67 65 62 55 48 45 41 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 56 60 68 73 73 69 63 58 52 46 40 37 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 6 8 5 2 10 13 21 25 37 36 35 31 27 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 4 2 3 5 7 10 11 4 7 -1 1 -5 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 68 79 78 90 128 78 240 231 221 216 211 213 202 214 200 209 185 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.1 27.1 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.4 26.0 26.6 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 132 131 127 127 114 114 112 112 109 108 108 114 120 124 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 130 130 125 125 110 109 106 104 101 99 97 102 106 109 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 72 73 73 68 65 62 54 47 39 40 42 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 27 26 27 30 29 26 27 27 25 23 23 22 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 52 49 53 38 30 24 30 39 35 45 28 18 -12 42 59 200 MB DIV 23 5 23 43 44 0 30 16 30 43 36 27 18 9 29 29 35 700-850 TADV 1 6 3 2 4 9 5 15 23 17 11 19 20 12 5 8 -4 LAND (KM) 414 539 668 808 949 1257 1558 1839 2091 2100 2111 2185 2297 2443 2340 2117 1881 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.5 19.9 21.6 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.1 22.4 23.6 24.9 26.3 29.2 32.0 34.6 36.9 38.9 40.5 41.7 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 11 8 3 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 6. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. -1. -0. -1. -5. -9. -9. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 18. 25. 30. 27. 22. 20. 17. 10. 3. -0. -4. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.5 21.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.82 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 29.9% 21.0% 13.4% 8.5% 17.5% 19.9% 0.0% Logistic: 18.3% 35.1% 24.8% 18.5% 14.4% 18.4% 10.6% 5.1% Bayesian: 5.0% 42.0% 15.2% 3.0% 2.6% 9.3% 2.7% 1.9% Consensus: 10.8% 35.7% 20.3% 11.6% 8.5% 15.1% 11.1% 2.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 60 63 70 75 72 67 65 62 55 48 45 41 42 43 18HR AGO 45 44 49 55 58 65 70 67 62 60 57 50 43 40 36 37 38 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 50 57 62 59 54 52 49 42 35 32 28 29 30 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 50 47 42 40 37 30 23 20 16 17 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT