* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 42 40 40 39 36 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 42 40 40 39 36 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 42 38 35 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 51 46 46 52 54 37 21 25 31 21 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 7 1 -4 -6 6 1 -3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 244 242 237 236 244 284 345 21 66 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.3 25.2 24.6 24.2 23.7 23.3 23.0 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 121 116 115 108 103 97 93 89 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -54.1 -55.1 -55.4 -55.6 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 35 34 32 30 29 30 33 37 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 16 17 17 16 14 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -9 -21 -19 -18 -48 -78 -110 -132 -138 -112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 9 25 5 15 -19 -5 -52 -42 -26 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 15 10 10 11 10 12 3 3 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 571 648 724 804 886 1085 1236 1342 1411 1447 1496 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.6 27.4 28.3 29.1 31.0 32.5 33.6 34.4 34.9 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.1 154.3 154.5 154.6 154.7 154.6 154.6 154.8 155.3 156.0 156.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -17. -29. -38. -42. -45. -48. -51. -56. -63. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -14. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -14. -24. -42. -59. -69. -75. -80. -86. -92.-100.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.7 154.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.6 62.3 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/08/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING