* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 56 57 60 65 76 83 92 97 103 105 103 98 88 81 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 56 57 60 65 76 83 92 97 103 105 103 79 44 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 57 59 63 71 83 94 105 110 112 109 102 78 43 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 6 3 10 7 7 9 5 4 4 10 11 18 21 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 6 4 -2 -1 -5 -3 0 1 -4 -2 -6 -4 -9 -3 SHEAR DIR 245 261 284 219 234 198 172 110 108 89 234 178 201 192 228 244 266 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.9 28.9 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 133 134 136 140 150 151 162 162 160 152 153 152 154 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 116 117 118 123 134 136 148 148 146 135 133 129 127 124 122 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -53.7 -53.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 11 7 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 50 51 51 52 54 49 49 49 52 50 53 54 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 20 21 22 25 27 30 30 33 35 35 35 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -18 -16 -11 -15 -6 4 27 20 19 25 16 -3 -8 -14 -9 -22 200 MB DIV -29 -11 2 -32 -40 11 -12 15 -28 34 -6 15 -6 29 22 18 30 700-850 TADV -5 -4 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 6 5 0 4 LAND (KM) 1416 1362 1310 1262 1215 1107 1004 900 862 853 924 649 375 146 -44 -195 -351 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 25.1 25.5 26.1 27.0 28.1 29.6 31.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.8 54.4 55.0 55.6 56.1 57.5 59.3 61.6 64.3 67.3 70.4 73.3 75.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 7 10 12 13 14 15 14 12 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 17 20 27 37 29 41 41 41 26 30 29 19 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 4. 5. 8. 9. 12. 13. 12. 10. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 21. 28. 37. 42. 48. 50. 48. 43. 33. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.6 53.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.8% 7.5% 5.9% 4.9% 8.6% 10.8% 12.4% Logistic: 0.8% 2.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 2.4% 3.2% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.4% 3.0% 2.3% 1.8% 3.7% 4.7% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 56 57 60 65 76 83 92 97 103 105 103 79 44 32 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 56 59 64 75 82 91 96 102 104 102 78 43 31 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 56 61 72 79 88 93 99 101 99 75 40 28 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 49 54 65 72 81 86 92 94 92 68 33 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT