* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 74 70 66 62 61 60 60 57 54 51 47 44 41 38 36 V (KT) LAND 85 78 74 70 66 62 61 60 60 57 54 51 47 44 41 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 85 78 72 68 64 60 59 60 61 60 58 54 50 45 40 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 3 1 6 4 9 7 16 16 21 19 23 25 31 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 -4 -3 0 2 3 7 4 9 10 8 5 5 SHEAR DIR 317 302 329 357 43 305 310 286 275 244 243 234 233 236 237 243 250 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.0 24.6 25.4 26.2 25.8 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.0 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 114 114 110 118 126 121 125 129 134 136 134 146 144 147 147 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 38 37 36 33 34 32 31 29 25 28 30 33 35 39 39 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 23 22 22 20 21 21 21 20 19 17 15 13 11 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 61 60 57 57 39 16 10 14 23 42 57 54 74 80 86 78 200 MB DIV 7 -3 -3 5 0 5 9 -2 2 -7 -9 -11 6 0 -5 1 8 700-850 TADV 7 -2 -1 0 1 -3 2 0 1 -2 0 -2 0 0 -1 2 9 LAND (KM) 2083 1981 1842 1709 1577 1314 1083 864 666 480 285 95 72 250 347 551 798 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.3 20.8 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.9 137.2 138.5 139.8 142.4 144.7 146.9 148.9 150.8 152.8 154.9 157.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 6 7 6 27 39 33 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. -29. -30. -31. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -24. -25. -25. -28. -31. -34. -38. -41. -44. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.7 134.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 869.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/08/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 49 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##