* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 51 53 59 68 77 88 94 102 105 106 98 86 79 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 51 53 59 68 77 88 94 102 105 106 80 44 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 49 49 52 58 69 83 96 107 116 113 104 79 44 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 13 5 6 7 5 2 4 4 5 11 12 15 23 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 5 7 3 2 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 -6 -1 -7 -8 -9 -4 SHEAR DIR 241 253 255 240 211 243 167 148 59 70 202 196 200 191 203 235 242 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.2 29.2 28.8 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 133 138 145 150 156 162 168 164 156 155 148 151 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 115 115 116 121 128 134 142 149 153 146 137 132 123 123 120 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.4 -54.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 -50.9 -50.7 -50.1 -50.6 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 10 11 7 10 700-500 MB RH 46 46 48 49 50 50 52 53 51 51 48 49 46 51 52 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 24 26 30 30 34 36 37 35 29 25 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -26 -17 -13 -14 -9 0 8 21 14 4 12 -10 -6 -11 -35 -30 200 MB DIV -11 -30 -8 -11 -39 -5 -8 -6 -11 4 0 12 5 26 35 16 15 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -5 0 -2 2 1 4 6 2 2 LAND (KM) 1516 1460 1403 1350 1298 1202 1104 1016 942 951 977 722 431 178 -40 -161 -314 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.8 25.2 25.7 26.3 27.2 28.4 29.9 31.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.8 53.4 54.0 54.6 55.2 56.4 58.0 59.9 62.4 65.4 68.5 71.4 74.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 9 10 13 15 15 14 13 11 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 14 15 21 26 32 30 37 47 37 49 41 22 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 11. 15. 16. 17. 13. 5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 9. 18. 27. 38. 44. 52. 55. 56. 48. 36. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.8 52.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.58 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 8.7% 6.3% 5.1% 4.2% 7.4% 9.6% 12.2% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 1.3% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 2.6% 3.6% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 49 51 53 59 68 77 88 94 102 105 106 80 44 32 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 51 53 59 68 77 88 94 102 105 106 80 44 32 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 48 50 56 65 74 85 91 99 102 103 77 41 29 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 44 50 59 68 79 85 93 96 97 71 35 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT