* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 84 80 75 69 64 64 61 57 55 49 44 38 35 35 32 V (KT) LAND 95 90 84 80 75 69 64 64 61 57 55 49 40 39 36 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 83 76 72 65 62 62 62 61 59 54 47 42 37 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 2 6 5 5 10 17 22 28 28 30 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 1 0 -1 -3 -1 4 6 7 6 4 10 5 5 6 SHEAR DIR 332 300 322 5 31 174 332 264 290 240 255 240 248 229 243 235 242 SST (C) 25.3 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.7 26.0 25.9 26.4 26.7 27.0 26.8 27.7 27.7 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 114 114 114 115 121 123 122 127 131 134 132 142 143 148 145 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 39 39 38 37 34 34 29 28 24 25 26 31 36 38 41 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 21 22 21 22 20 21 21 20 19 16 13 9 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 63 62 59 60 25 6 6 22 33 43 49 44 45 57 48 200 MB DIV -6 4 0 9 6 0 9 0 7 4 -7 -3 -19 -6 -10 0 -10 700-850 TADV 9 13 0 -3 0 3 -2 6 1 0 -6 -6 -2 -7 -5 -1 2 LAND (KM) 2026 2087 1986 1852 1719 1455 1207 979 784 600 401 198 -8 122 229 476 780 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.1 21.7 21.3 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.5 135.8 137.1 138.4 141.0 143.5 145.8 147.8 149.7 151.7 153.9 156.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 5 2 23 29 31 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -21. -27. -32. -36. -39. -41. -41. -42. -43. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -7. -7. -10. -13. -16. -16. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -15. -20. -26. -31. -31. -34. -38. -40. -46. -51. -57. -60. -60. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 20.3 133.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 979.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 72 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##