* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 52 45 40 36 31 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 52 45 40 36 31 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 53 47 42 37 29 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 42 46 50 50 58 53 46 28 26 22 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 3 0 -1 -2 -1 9 1 2 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 230 230 239 242 241 247 253 283 343 2 335 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.3 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.2 23.6 22.8 22.2 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 125 126 119 114 111 104 97 89 83 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -55.0 -56.2 -56.1 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 39 39 35 30 28 35 37 41 48 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 15 14 13 14 14 10 7 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -8 -6 -3 -14 -29 -42 -66 -97 -121 -143 -142 -140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 12 -2 -8 -8 8 2 -17 -21 -44 -15 12 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 16 17 16 11 7 8 11 7 9 7 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 471 478 499 544 597 730 874 1028 1187 1342 1508 1679 1858 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.5 26.2 27.8 29.4 31.0 32.6 34.1 35.7 37.3 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.6 153.2 153.8 154.3 154.7 155.3 155.8 156.1 156.5 156.9 157.5 158.1 158.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. -21. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -15. -21. -29. -39. -47. -53. -54. -54. -58. -63. -70. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -13. -16. -21. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -20. -24. -29. -33. -38. -52. -64. -78. -86. -90. -95.-100.-107.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 23.6 152.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 488.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING