* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 56 56 58 61 70 77 85 88 97 102 104 100 87 78 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 56 56 58 61 70 77 85 88 97 102 104 100 68 39 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 56 56 58 63 72 83 94 103 109 112 108 99 69 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 17 13 7 10 6 10 10 7 7 5 10 8 10 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 2 4 7 2 -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 -6 -2 -3 -9 -8 SHEAR DIR 244 247 263 267 248 219 165 156 92 83 86 177 153 198 199 261 278 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.1 29.0 29.6 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 132 132 135 144 149 154 163 164 167 155 152 162 163 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 115 115 115 114 118 127 133 139 149 150 150 136 129 134 132 133 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.2 -50.7 -49.9 -50.2 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.2 1.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 8 9 700-500 MB RH 44 46 46 48 51 51 54 50 53 51 50 50 53 52 55 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 20 21 24 26 28 28 32 35 37 36 28 22 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -12 -19 -13 0 -9 5 16 34 27 21 8 -3 -26 -30 -58 -58 200 MB DIV 4 -5 -35 -15 -10 -15 13 -20 19 -27 16 -10 30 -9 41 -4 12 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -6 0 0 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 -1 5 1 5 10 5 LAND (KM) 1571 1512 1453 1400 1347 1259 1165 1059 977 962 959 836 545 275 62 -53 -92 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.6 26.2 27.0 28.0 29.3 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.2 52.9 53.5 54.1 54.7 55.8 57.2 59.1 61.4 64.2 67.3 70.4 72.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 10 12 14 15 14 13 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 13 14 17 24 28 35 37 50 53 30 35 46 20 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 8. 12. 15. 16. 14. 3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 15. 22. 30. 33. 42. 47. 49. 45. 32. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.8 52.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.50 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 10.8% 7.4% 5.9% 4.9% 8.2% 9.7% 10.2% Logistic: 0.9% 2.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.5% 3.0% 2.3% 1.8% 3.3% 3.8% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 56 56 58 61 70 77 85 88 97 102 104 100 68 39 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 55 57 60 69 76 84 87 96 101 103 99 67 38 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 54 57 66 73 81 84 93 98 100 96 64 35 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 47 50 59 66 74 77 86 91 93 89 57 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT