* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 87 82 76 70 66 62 60 58 59 55 53 49 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 100 92 87 82 76 70 66 62 60 58 59 55 53 49 48 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 84 78 73 66 62 60 60 61 61 60 56 52 48 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 6 7 4 8 3 7 3 10 13 17 22 25 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 -1 -4 -3 0 3 6 6 8 9 6 2 1 SHEAR DIR 19 360 302 320 351 9 321 354 306 234 241 237 251 246 245 244 227 SST (C) 25.4 25.2 25.3 25.1 25.1 24.6 25.4 26.1 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.1 26.7 27.5 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 117 115 115 110 118 125 121 125 129 133 135 131 140 142 146 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 39 39 37 36 36 34 33 31 29 27 28 28 32 37 40 38 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 24 24 22 23 23 21 21 20 21 18 17 13 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 44 61 59 52 36 7 8 12 23 34 46 46 45 55 70 200 MB DIV -12 -14 3 10 19 -2 4 7 8 12 0 1 -21 -7 -25 9 -5 700-850 TADV -4 6 12 4 -3 2 -1 2 0 1 1 -2 0 -4 -1 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1920 2020 2085 1996 1862 1597 1345 1113 897 699 503 309 128 5 142 210 431 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.3 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.8 133.1 134.4 135.7 137.0 139.6 142.1 144.4 146.6 148.6 150.6 152.5 154.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 1 20 33 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -25. -31. -36. -41. -44. -46. -47. -48. -49. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -6. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -18. -24. -30. -34. -38. -40. -42. -41. -45. -47. -51. -53. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.9 131.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1039.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 58 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##