* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 100 95 89 78 71 64 61 59 53 52 48 44 39 37 35 V (KT) LAND 110 106 100 95 89 78 71 64 61 59 53 52 48 44 40 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 96 88 82 72 66 63 62 61 60 58 54 48 43 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 1 3 6 7 3 8 6 7 15 20 22 25 28 33 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 1 0 -1 -1 -3 0 3 3 7 8 6 5 5 2 SHEAR DIR 35 39 29 247 284 4 302 336 270 259 228 245 242 257 246 244 248 SST (C) 26.3 25.5 25.2 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.8 26.2 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.0 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 119 116 117 115 115 116 122 125 122 126 130 133 136 134 139 140 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 37 36 33 31 30 29 30 30 30 31 35 37 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 23 24 23 22 22 21 21 22 19 20 17 14 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 48 46 44 46 61 62 50 29 22 22 30 39 41 44 42 45 44 200 MB DIV 3 -15 -10 6 12 14 -4 -5 -9 14 10 -2 -8 -14 -3 -30 0 700-850 TADV -11 -3 6 7 2 -5 5 -2 5 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1834 1925 2022 2090 1996 1729 1464 1210 991 796 605 410 229 73 23 53 222 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.4 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.0 21.7 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.8 133.1 134.4 135.7 138.3 140.9 143.4 145.6 147.6 149.6 151.6 153.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 4 6 6 4 18 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -30. -38. -44. -50. -54. -57. -58. -58. -60. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -9. -7. -10. -12. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -15. -21. -32. -39. -46. -49. -51. -57. -58. -62. -66. -71. -73. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.4 130.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1102.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 63 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##