* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 49 49 50 54 60 68 76 85 95 104 107 105 99 93 91 V (KT) LAND 55 51 49 49 50 54 60 68 76 85 95 104 107 105 99 93 91 V (KT) LGEM 55 49 46 45 45 48 54 63 74 87 99 109 114 108 100 94 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 22 15 13 15 4 5 5 6 5 1 7 15 19 26 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 5 2 2 5 2 -2 -3 -1 0 -5 -3 0 -5 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 238 243 242 241 245 256 218 210 171 99 94 193 213 196 209 215 235 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.5 28.9 29.3 29.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 134 134 132 132 136 147 153 156 164 168 162 151 156 158 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 117 117 115 114 118 129 136 141 148 151 143 129 130 129 108 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -53.8 -53.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.4 -50.3 -49.9 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 10 6 700-500 MB RH 44 43 45 45 48 49 51 53 50 50 47 48 47 53 58 58 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 19 20 21 23 26 28 30 33 36 37 38 40 40 43 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -30 -21 -18 -16 -4 -12 17 27 45 45 30 30 25 15 26 9 200 MB DIV -2 -4 2 -20 -37 -5 -20 9 -31 26 -13 19 2 40 40 61 24 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 -4 -3 0 0 -2 -1 -5 0 6 8 6 8 3 -3 LAND (KM) 1751 1693 1636 1572 1510 1401 1313 1231 1155 1090 1095 1065 742 447 238 186 118 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.5 27.3 28.2 29.4 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.0 51.7 52.4 53.1 54.4 55.6 57.0 58.8 61.3 64.1 67.1 70.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 8 10 13 14 15 14 11 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 17 15 13 17 24 30 45 31 41 34 28 65 28 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -5. -1. 5. 13. 21. 30. 40. 49. 52. 50. 44. 38. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.1 50.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.38 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 471.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 6.3% 4.6% 4.2% 3.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 2.4% 0.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 51 49 49 50 54 60 68 76 85 95 104 107 105 99 93 91 18HR AGO 55 54 52 52 53 57 63 71 79 88 98 107 110 108 102 96 94 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 52 56 62 70 78 87 97 106 109 107 101 95 93 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 50 56 64 72 81 91 100 103 101 95 89 87 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT