* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 75 66 57 50 38 33 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 75 66 57 50 38 33 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 77 70 63 56 45 36 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 40 44 44 43 49 51 57 49 43 30 18 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 0 4 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 230 232 233 233 243 246 246 251 263 292 317 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.3 25.2 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 128 125 123 123 124 123 119 118 114 113 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 41 39 39 35 34 27 26 27 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 17 16 13 14 12 12 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 27 14 -3 -15 -24 -49 -61 -74 -94 -112 -121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 1 0 15 16 -13 18 -18 -11 -23 -48 -23 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 13 13 13 13 11 7 7 5 5 3 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 435 424 418 415 416 449 516 578 636 693 779 875 969 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.7 25.8 26.7 27.6 28.3 29.2 30.1 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.3 151.9 152.4 153.0 153.5 154.6 155.6 156.4 157.2 157.8 158.6 159.5 160.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -33. -34. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -15. -19. -26. -30. -34. -41. -47. -51. -53. -52. -57. -61. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -9. -10. -16. -19. -21. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -28. -35. -47. -52. -60. -65. -76. -85. -91. -93. -98.-102.-105.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.7 151.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 704.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING