* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 50 50 52 56 63 67 79 88 98 107 108 108 99 94 92 V (KT) LAND 60 53 50 50 52 56 63 67 79 88 98 107 108 108 99 94 92 V (KT) LGEM 60 51 47 46 46 49 54 61 71 85 98 107 110 108 100 94 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 21 16 16 9 3 2 5 1 6 6 13 12 20 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 2 3 0 4 1 3 -5 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 235 240 247 240 240 254 205 188 157 155 157 165 207 194 201 216 235 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.6 29.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 134 135 135 135 135 141 145 152 158 165 164 153 146 159 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 117 118 118 116 117 122 127 135 141 148 145 132 123 131 106 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -54.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 8 8 700-500 MB RH 45 46 45 45 45 49 52 53 50 50 47 49 47 49 52 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 19 20 21 24 24 29 30 33 36 36 39 38 41 42 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -37 -33 -26 -19 -14 0 0 23 41 51 37 17 20 10 18 17 200 MB DIV 5 -2 -6 4 -14 -7 -11 5 0 3 6 20 15 43 38 39 43 700-850 TADV 2 4 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -4 -2 -3 5 2 8 6 5 -3 LAND (KM) 1831 1772 1714 1652 1591 1482 1392 1314 1243 1195 1170 1196 899 593 343 222 35 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.7 27.5 28.4 29.5 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.5 50.2 50.9 51.6 52.3 53.6 54.8 56.1 57.7 59.6 62.1 65.0 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 11 13 14 14 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 22 22 20 16 14 21 23 32 37 32 33 26 41 19 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -8. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 12. 13. 17. 20. 19. 21. 18. 19. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -10. -8. -4. 3. 7. 19. 28. 38. 47. 48. 48. 39. 34. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.0 49.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.29 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 3.3% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 53 50 50 52 56 63 67 79 88 98 107 108 108 99 94 92 18HR AGO 60 59 56 56 58 62 69 73 85 94 104 113 114 114 105 100 98 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 58 62 69 73 85 94 104 113 114 114 105 100 98 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 56 63 67 79 88 98 107 108 108 99 94 92 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT