* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 112 109 102 89 78 67 61 59 58 56 54 53 51 47 44 V (KT) LAND 110 113 112 109 102 89 78 67 61 59 58 56 54 53 51 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 110 112 109 103 95 82 72 64 61 61 61 62 60 57 52 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 3 3 3 5 2 0 3 5 8 14 16 19 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 0 0 1 0 -2 0 1 2 10 11 10 14 8 5 SHEAR DIR 38 74 68 63 31 350 23 121 33 251 232 212 234 242 263 264 263 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.5 25.8 25.4 24.9 25.3 25.3 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.6 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 130 122 118 113 117 117 125 125 125 129 135 136 134 130 138 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 44 41 41 39 35 33 31 30 28 29 31 34 33 35 36 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 27 28 26 24 25 22 21 21 21 21 19 18 16 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 49 48 51 56 49 67 61 60 36 39 36 44 43 45 53 50 56 200 MB DIV 16 34 3 -26 -5 12 1 1 22 16 19 21 -4 -20 -38 -19 -17 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -9 -6 0 3 2 8 -1 1 -1 2 -1 1 0 -2 3 LAND (KM) 1682 1761 1846 1937 2033 1996 1737 1480 1233 997 784 585 399 240 101 3 108 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.9 129.2 130.5 131.8 133.1 135.7 138.2 140.7 143.1 145.4 147.5 149.5 151.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 8 8 4 2 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -19. -27. -36. -43. -48. -53. -56. -56. -57. -58. -61. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -8. -21. -32. -43. -49. -51. -52. -54. -56. -57. -59. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.4 127.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1059.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 4.4% 15.1% 6.3% 17.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 1.5% 5.0% 2.1% 5.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 13 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##