* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 84 74 66 50 39 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 92 84 74 66 50 39 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 94 86 79 72 58 47 38 29 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 26 28 36 40 40 44 48 55 51 41 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 5 3 2 9 5 6 2 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 236 236 232 233 235 235 241 247 254 287 315 340 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.4 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 134 132 130 125 124 124 123 121 117 116 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 42 43 43 41 39 36 35 30 29 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 20 19 19 16 14 14 11 7 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 34 33 38 33 8 -10 -22 -43 -82 -95 -121 -127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 24 19 6 19 15 -5 15 -19 -42 -25 -38 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 10 13 14 13 12 7 5 4 2 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 491 445 409 399 394 383 420 478 538 602 698 814 944 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.4 24.5 25.6 26.6 27.5 28.5 29.5 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.2 150.8 151.4 151.9 152.4 153.6 154.8 156.0 157.1 158.0 159.1 160.4 161.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 8 6 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -11. -18. -25. -31. -36. -40. -44. -46. -48. -50. -52. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -13. -18. -25. -28. -30. -34. -38. -43. -46. -48. -53. -56. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -2. -5. -9. -11. -17. -22. -24. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -26. -34. -50. -61. -68. -77. -88. -94.-102.-105.-110.-112.-114.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.5 150.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 833.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/06/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING