* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 85 83 82 76 71 66 62 61 61 61 60 59 55 51 46 V (KT) LAND 85 85 85 83 82 76 71 66 62 61 61 61 60 59 55 51 46 V (KT) LGEM 85 85 83 82 80 73 65 60 56 56 57 59 61 60 54 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 9 8 4 3 3 1 5 5 7 13 17 19 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 1 6 7 11 8 5 SHEAR DIR 67 46 54 73 63 53 4 14 261 329 254 271 215 235 235 257 247 SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.3 24.5 24.9 25.0 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 131 131 128 117 109 113 113 121 124 124 131 133 132 131 137 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 49 45 46 43 40 35 32 30 29 29 29 30 30 34 34 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 25 27 25 25 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 18 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 50 54 60 61 79 67 68 51 52 39 37 44 47 43 51 200 MB DIV 25 11 16 31 14 1 11 8 -16 14 11 20 16 -9 1 -16 -13 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -8 -5 -7 3 0 2 3 -4 1 3 3 3 -2 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1517 1584 1660 1740 1828 2021 1997 1731 1477 1235 993 776 577 398 228 39 75 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.4 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.5 127.8 129.2 130.5 133.2 135.7 138.3 140.8 143.2 145.6 147.8 149.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 4 2 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -23. -26. -29. -31. -32. -33. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -3. -9. -14. -19. -23. -24. -24. -24. -25. -26. -30. -34. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.9 125.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 785.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 6.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/06/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##