* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 85 81 77 76 76 76 82 89 99 106 105 105 103 101 99 V (KT) LAND 100 92 85 81 77 76 76 76 82 89 99 106 105 105 103 101 99 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 86 82 80 78 78 80 86 95 101 106 109 109 108 102 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 24 22 25 13 12 4 7 8 15 12 9 13 14 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 6 4 1 6 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 1 0 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 245 238 237 231 243 239 237 192 214 199 186 154 136 107 144 157 184 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.5 28.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 133 135 134 137 135 135 141 146 153 157 163 161 161 149 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 118 119 118 119 117 116 121 126 133 138 144 141 139 127 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -52.6 -51.9 -50.7 -50.5 -49.6 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 49 48 47 50 52 53 55 55 55 53 53 52 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 19 19 19 22 23 24 27 29 34 37 37 38 41 43 44 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -43 -32 -32 -37 -29 -19 -6 0 24 36 72 67 61 49 25 18 200 MB DIV 24 42 33 10 -13 20 -28 19 -2 43 -7 52 13 46 22 73 42 700-850 TADV 17 7 6 3 5 1 0 0 1 -2 1 0 3 -1 2 7 4 LAND (KM) 1974 1914 1858 1796 1737 1607 1494 1408 1343 1290 1251 1242 1270 1027 761 529 356 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.8 28.7 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.4 49.1 49.9 50.7 52.3 53.8 55.0 56.2 57.5 59.1 61.0 63.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 9 11 13 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 28 31 27 23 23 15 14 21 23 30 38 31 32 27 26 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -22. -28. -33. -35. -36. -37. -39. -40. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -14. -8. -4. 0. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 8. 11. 17. 20. 19. 19. 21. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -19. -23. -24. -24. -24. -18. -11. -1. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 23.8 47.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 879.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 10( 30) 6( 34) 5( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 92 85 81 77 76 76 76 82 89 99 106 105 105 103 101 99 18HR AGO 100 99 92 88 84 83 83 83 89 96 106 113 112 112 110 108 106 12HR AGO 100 97 96 92 88 87 87 87 93 100 110 117 116 116 114 112 110 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 86 85 85 85 91 98 108 115 114 114 112 110 108 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 80 80 86 93 103 110 109 109 107 105 103 IN 6HR 100 92 83 77 74 73 73 73 79 86 96 103 102 102 100 98 96 IN 12HR 100 92 85 76 70 66 66 66 72 79 89 96 95 95 93 91 89