* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 29 31 38 43 44 45 42 40 38 35 32 30 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 8 7 13 25 40 49 39 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -5 -6 -4 -4 -4 0 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 328 334 338 307 283 253 249 249 255 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 158 158 158 153 150 150 154 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 126 127 127 126 122 120 119 122 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.8 -54.6 -55.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 5 4 7 7 2 5 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 73 73 74 75 74 72 62 55 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 10 7 10 11 14 17 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 4 7 17 -4 -23 -8 -26 -16 -38 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 39 30 43 51 31 53 44 58 47 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 -1 4 3 3 6 4 16 24 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -285 -335 -387 -435 -484 -579 -687 -768 -867 -952 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.3 33.6 33.9 34.2 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.1 39.1 40.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.8 91.3 91.8 92.2 92.7 93.4 93.3 92.6 91.6 90.3 89.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 5. -2. -9. -18. -22. -26. -32. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. -1. 1. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 13. 18. 19. 20. 17. 15. 13. 10. 7. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.9 90.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.5% 8.8% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 9.5% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 7.7% 4.4% 2.5% 0.1% 0.7% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 22 22 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 16 16 17 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT