* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 102 95 86 78 74 73 76 75 80 88 94 97 97 99 97 V (KT) LAND 115 110 102 95 86 78 74 73 76 75 80 88 94 97 97 99 97 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 103 95 90 84 83 84 87 91 95 101 106 110 109 108 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 25 23 21 23 20 13 10 11 12 11 7 7 8 8 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 9 6 5 5 2 1 -2 -1 -3 -2 4 5 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 233 245 239 234 231 245 231 244 208 203 189 179 196 243 231 218 226 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.0 28.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 134 134 133 133 138 135 139 138 146 151 157 161 153 151 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 119 119 118 116 119 117 119 118 126 130 137 141 133 130 118 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.5 -53.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.2 -50.7 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.6 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 46 48 50 49 50 47 50 52 53 55 54 54 49 48 48 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 16 20 20 22 26 26 29 33 36 37 37 41 42 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -27 -39 -32 -30 -34 -21 -12 4 10 39 66 60 41 5 -5 -10 200 MB DIV 32 16 26 28 3 5 1 -5 3 6 7 5 0 15 20 -2 10 700-850 TADV 12 13 12 6 2 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -1 2 -1 5 5 LAND (KM) 2026 1954 1885 1819 1756 1641 1534 1436 1374 1329 1321 1328 1340 1264 991 708 437 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.7 28.7 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 47.8 48.6 49.4 50.3 51.8 53.2 54.5 55.6 56.7 57.8 59.2 61.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 9 11 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 27 27 22 22 19 15 19 19 24 29 36 28 21 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -21. -32. -41. -49. -54. -56. -58. -59. -61. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -14. -17. -22. -18. -12. -7. -3. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -4. -1. -2. -1. 4. 3. 7. 12. 14. 14. 13. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -20. -29. -37. -41. -42. -39. -40. -35. -27. -21. -18. -18. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.1 46.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1014.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 24( 48) 10( 53) 6( 56) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 110 102 95 86 78 74 73 76 75 80 88 94 97 97 99 97 18HR AGO 115 114 106 99 90 82 78 77 80 79 84 92 98 101 101 103 101 12HR AGO 115 112 111 104 95 87 83 82 85 84 89 97 103 106 106 108 106 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 96 88 84 83 86 85 90 98 104 107 107 109 107 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 84 83 86 85 90 98 104 107 107 109 107 IN 6HR 115 110 101 95 92 88 84 83 86 85 90 98 104 107 107 109 107 IN 12HR 115 110 102 93 87 83 79 78 81 80 85 93 99 102 102 104 102