* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 83 81 77 75 73 70 67 65 64 63 63 64 63 58 55 V (KT) LAND 95 88 83 81 77 75 73 70 67 65 64 63 63 64 63 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 85 82 79 73 68 63 59 56 55 56 59 60 59 55 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 1 2 0 3 3 8 14 21 22 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 1 -4 -5 1 -3 0 -2 0 5 6 10 16 8 SHEAR DIR 38 37 40 42 43 43 44 73 32 342 268 256 264 236 238 237 246 SST (C) 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.2 27.0 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.9 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 138 141 137 135 118 118 117 117 123 127 125 125 125 129 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 50 47 43 40 34 32 33 32 34 35 36 38 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 29 27 29 29 27 25 24 24 23 22 23 23 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 36 44 48 55 55 52 71 72 71 60 58 58 50 42 48 46 56 200 MB DIV 12 32 38 20 6 28 13 15 0 1 -1 0 2 7 6 19 -21 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -3 -5 -7 -6 -7 3 -1 4 -1 2 0 3 4 5 2 LAND (KM) 1313 1391 1476 1539 1603 1758 1941 2090 1812 1550 1302 1071 866 689 493 287 142 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.8 123.0 124.2 125.5 126.7 129.4 132.1 134.8 137.5 140.1 142.6 145.0 147.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 5 6 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -37. -39. -40. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -14. -18. -20. -22. -25. -28. -30. -31. -32. -32. -31. -32. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.0 121.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 756.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.07 -0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 11.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##