* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 97 90 85 75 68 66 65 66 71 77 85 91 93 91 91 V (KT) LAND 105 104 97 90 85 75 68 66 65 66 71 77 85 91 93 91 91 V (KT) LGEM 105 105 100 94 89 81 76 75 75 78 83 89 96 100 102 101 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 24 25 22 21 21 18 15 15 13 13 12 6 13 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 6 9 7 3 4 2 0 -1 -4 -7 3 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 239 230 238 246 240 228 265 236 265 207 201 185 189 207 298 334 328 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 129 133 134 133 132 136 135 138 139 149 149 156 162 152 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 117 120 120 117 115 119 117 118 119 127 127 133 136 128 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 -54.5 -53.8 -53.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 48 50 51 50 50 52 53 57 54 58 54 55 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 20 20 20 21 23 25 29 33 36 38 40 40 43 850 MB ENV VOR 17 -2 -5 -21 -25 -35 -35 -22 -23 -2 10 38 71 63 41 -2 -3 200 MB DIV 10 22 27 10 30 6 1 7 4 3 34 7 25 -6 -1 -13 22 700-850 TADV 22 17 14 9 8 13 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 4 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 2014 2019 1984 1913 1833 1711 1604 1508 1436 1388 1360 1385 1420 1483 1343 1131 911 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.6 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.6 27.3 28.3 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.2 47.1 48.1 49.0 50.6 52.0 53.3 54.5 55.6 56.7 57.6 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 21 22 18 17 19 15 19 19 24 22 28 35 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -16. -25. -32. -39. -43. -45. -47. -49. -50. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -15. -18. -18. -14. -11. -7. -3. -0. 2. 6. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. 0. 2. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -8. -15. -20. -30. -37. -39. -40. -39. -34. -28. -20. -14. -11. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 21.7 45.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 900.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 20( 42) 10( 47) 5( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 97 90 85 75 68 66 65 66 71 77 85 91 93 91 91 18HR AGO 105 104 97 90 85 75 68 66 65 66 71 77 85 91 93 91 91 12HR AGO 105 102 101 94 89 79 72 70 69 70 75 81 89 95 97 95 95 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 90 80 73 71 70 71 76 82 90 96 98 96 96 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 76 69 67 66 67 72 78 86 92 94 92 92 IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 81 74 72 71 72 77 83 91 97 99 97 97 IN 12HR 105 104 97 88 82 78 71 69 68 69 74 80 88 94 96 94 94