* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 43 44 47 50 54 56 59 53 51 43 39 35 31 31 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 10 13 15 10 14 21 33 45 46 51 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -3 -6 -5 -6 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 333 323 324 336 351 292 261 255 256 275 282 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.9 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 152 154 157 157 158 156 154 150 151 151 168 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 129 130 129 128 124 122 119 120 121 133 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 9 9 6 7 3 4 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 66 66 69 70 75 77 78 73 64 53 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 10 14 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -78 -76 -39 -4 0 8 -38 -13 -27 -5 -48 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 13 37 51 29 42 41 50 45 34 16 50 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 5 4 7 3 6 1 11 10 23 25 42 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -54 -151 -225 -290 -360 -479 -590 -680 -785 -885 -996 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.7 32.4 32.9 33.4 34.2 35.1 35.9 36.9 38.1 39.3 40.7 42.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.9 89.6 90.4 91.0 91.6 92.6 93.3 93.7 93.5 92.6 91.3 89.5 87.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 6 4 5 6 7 9 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -11. -18. -26. -31. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 14. 8. 6. -2. -6. -10. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.9 88.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.53 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 10.1% 6.7% 5.0% 4.5% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 2.7% 2.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.4% 2.8% 2.1% 1.7% 3.4% 0.7% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/05/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 36 34 34 34 34 35 36 36 37 37 37 37 37 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 35 35 35 35 36 37 37 38 38 38 38 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 32 32 32 33 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT