* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 80 75 67 62 59 62 63 68 73 82 88 87 88 83 V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 80 75 67 62 59 62 63 68 73 82 88 87 88 83 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 89 84 80 74 70 68 70 74 79 84 89 91 92 91 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 20 24 27 18 22 15 19 14 20 18 18 10 22 32 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 8 7 7 11 3 5 1 -1 -1 -3 -6 -2 0 0 -8 SHEAR DIR 251 244 239 236 236 225 248 252 244 226 219 207 215 240 286 329 351 SST (C) 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 126 127 130 133 134 133 137 138 138 140 148 147 150 156 152 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 116 116 119 120 119 116 119 119 118 119 125 123 125 130 126 120 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 49 48 48 50 51 53 51 52 54 54 53 54 56 53 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 22 24 27 30 35 39 38 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 28 15 -2 -7 -18 -36 -34 -33 -24 -17 -15 19 45 41 20 10 -92 200 MB DIV 9 26 29 20 14 24 -18 26 -5 11 -2 27 -19 38 -12 -6 -58 700-850 TADV 15 18 18 15 13 7 3 -1 0 0 2 0 3 0 6 2 2 LAND (KM) 1997 2003 2006 1968 1891 1757 1663 1577 1516 1462 1449 1463 1508 1566 1428 1269 1108 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.8 23.3 24.3 25.2 25.8 26.5 27.1 27.9 28.7 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.3 46.4 47.3 48.3 50.0 51.4 52.7 53.9 55.1 56.1 56.9 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 17 19 22 18 20 21 17 17 21 27 21 20 24 17 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -15. -20. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. -34. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -15. -12. -10. -7. -5. -4. -2. 1. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. -1. 3. 6. 12. 15. 13. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -10. -15. -23. -28. -31. -28. -27. -22. -17. -8. -2. -3. -2. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 21.1 44.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 762.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.14 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 4.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 5( 25) 3( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 86 80 75 67 62 59 62 63 68 73 82 88 87 88 83 18HR AGO 90 89 86 80 75 67 62 59 62 63 68 73 82 88 87 88 83 12HR AGO 90 87 86 80 75 67 62 59 62 63 68 73 82 88 87 88 83 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 67 62 59 62 63 68 73 82 88 87 88 83 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 63 58 55 58 59 64 69 78 84 83 84 79 IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 67 62 59 62 63 68 73 82 88 87 88 83 IN 12HR 90 89 86 77 71 67 62 59 62 63 68 73 82 88 87 88 83