* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 66 65 65 62 58 52 47 38 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 66 65 65 62 58 52 47 38 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 66 65 64 63 59 54 46 38 30 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 13 14 11 20 26 36 41 46 51 61 54 52 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 4 3 5 8 4 6 6 3 -3 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 232 244 257 261 239 235 225 223 226 241 240 248 263 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 130 129 126 127 124 121 121 119 116 113 111 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -56.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 46 45 45 44 43 42 37 37 35 30 26 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 21 23 22 22 19 18 16 13 11 10 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 68 64 63 68 60 52 37 26 5 -9 -26 -30 -49 -93 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 28 9 15 10 6 36 29 21 5 11 -7 -19 -33 -26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 -1 0 3 5 12 13 18 17 8 6 1 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1140 1025 910 821 733 587 516 508 531 601 691 785 866 947 1036 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.8 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.7 21.7 22.9 24.2 25.7 27.0 28.3 29.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.9 145.0 146.1 147.0 147.8 149.3 150.4 151.4 152.4 153.5 154.4 155.2 156.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 6 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -18. -26. -34. -42. -49. -55. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 1. 0. -0. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -14. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -12. -18. -23. -32. -43. -53. -60. -72. -81. -86. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.8 143.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 568.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING