* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 74 72 68 62 57 54 53 54 60 67 71 80 86 86 87 V (KT) LAND 75 76 74 72 68 62 57 54 53 54 60 67 71 80 86 86 87 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 77 74 70 65 60 59 61 64 69 76 87 94 97 95 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 23 21 18 21 11 22 15 16 12 17 15 13 11 25 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 1 4 9 9 14 3 4 0 -3 -4 -3 -7 5 3 11 SHEAR DIR 240 237 251 252 241 239 234 259 248 236 193 204 164 189 221 269 294 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.4 27.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 113 112 113 113 117 132 141 138 138 148 154 156 156 153 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 104 103 104 102 104 116 123 119 117 125 128 130 130 127 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -53.6 -53.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.8 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 49 49 49 51 52 51 52 53 53 56 58 55 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 19 19 20 19 19 20 21 24 28 30 35 39 40 43 850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 32 19 1 -12 -30 -40 -35 -27 -23 -8 50 62 75 59 71 200 MB DIV 16 1 -4 5 14 16 33 -24 27 0 21 1 32 26 50 4 27 700-850 TADV 14 21 22 19 11 14 7 5 1 3 1 3 1 0 10 9 13 LAND (KM) 1979 1962 1953 1959 1951 1836 1724 1636 1574 1540 1543 1567 1606 1604 1467 1287 1117 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.5 22.0 23.1 24.2 25.2 26.2 27.1 28.1 29.1 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.8 44.8 45.8 46.9 48.8 50.3 51.7 53.0 54.1 55.0 55.8 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 4 4 4 5 4 19 23 17 21 30 32 27 28 19 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 5. 6. 12. 15. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -18. -21. -22. -21. -15. -8. -4. 5. 11. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.0 42.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.36 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 591.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 13.2% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 4.7% 2.6% 2.2% 1.3% 3.2% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 5.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 6.7% 4.2% 0.8% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 3( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 76 74 72 68 62 57 54 53 54 60 67 71 80 86 86 87 18HR AGO 75 74 72 70 66 60 55 52 51 52 58 65 69 78 84 84 85 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 65 59 54 51 50 51 57 64 68 77 83 83 84 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 55 50 47 46 47 53 60 64 73 79 79 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT