* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 60 60 62 62 66 65 68 70 71 70 68 65 64 65 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 51 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 53 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 15 17 14 10 12 12 16 28 34 38 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -7 -4 -4 0 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 291 293 309 326 319 320 284 285 255 247 262 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 152 147 157 163 162 162 162 159 154 155 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 139 133 127 134 136 132 131 128 127 124 124 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.9 -54.4 -54.9 -53.2 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 0.6 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 6 9 4 6 1 4 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 63 66 70 74 77 81 79 74 59 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 11 9 8 8 6 8 12 14 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -43 -51 -72 -74 -10 -18 -16 -26 -18 -15 -6 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 35 44 23 3 46 13 59 23 37 39 25 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 11 19 6 6 6 5 8 12 10 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 199 150 61 -36 -113 -289 -436 -525 -631 -741 -877 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.0 29.8 30.6 31.4 32.7 33.7 34.5 35.4 36.4 37.7 39.2 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.2 87.4 88.5 89.3 90.2 91.6 92.8 93.7 94.3 94.3 93.8 92.6 91.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 8 6 6 5 6 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 22 22 26 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -6. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -8. -4. -2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 5. 5. 7. 7. 11. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. 10. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.1 86.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.7% 9.5% 7.0% 6.1% 9.3% 10.5% 11.3% Logistic: 2.2% 12.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.4% 8.2% 9.2% 4.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 9.2% 5.2% 3.7% 2.8% 5.9% 6.6% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/04/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 60 51 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 57 48 38 28 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 55 52 51 42 32 22 19 18 18 18 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 35 25 22 21 21 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT