* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 64 61 59 54 49 45 42 46 49 55 62 70 75 79 79 V (KT) LAND 65 65 64 61 59 54 49 45 42 46 49 55 62 70 75 79 79 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 65 63 61 56 53 50 50 51 54 61 71 80 86 90 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 22 22 23 22 24 26 18 13 16 23 14 6 7 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 3 6 2 12 6 5 0 -1 0 -7 -5 0 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 244 249 245 242 244 246 255 261 273 244 264 202 184 176 219 306 349 SST (C) 26.2 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.6 26.0 26.1 27.7 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 116 119 115 111 111 114 115 132 140 137 137 148 148 153 157 160 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 111 106 103 102 104 104 117 123 118 118 126 123 127 130 132 126 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -53.9 -53.7 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 51 50 48 50 54 56 56 56 52 54 53 58 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 19 20 18 18 17 17 19 20 22 26 32 35 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR 63 52 50 40 22 -1 -22 -27 -34 -26 -22 -8 24 40 37 22 9 200 MB DIV 15 7 0 0 8 1 36 -6 6 11 7 2 -2 -1 4 -5 -1 700-850 TADV 17 15 15 17 19 11 7 7 1 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1977 1951 1934 1927 1923 1849 1690 1580 1519 1474 1469 1473 1493 1528 1521 1386 1251 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.3 22.4 23.5 24.6 25.7 26.6 27.6 28.6 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.1 44.2 45.2 46.3 48.5 50.4 52.0 53.3 54.5 55.5 56.6 57.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 11 5 2 1 7 0 15 21 15 17 28 24 21 23 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -7. -6. -4. 1. 7. 9. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -19. -16. -10. -3. 5. 10. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.5 42.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.33 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 479.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.12 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 12.2% 8.6% 7.1% 6.3% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 3.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 2.7% 1.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.4% 3.3% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 64 61 59 54 49 45 42 46 49 55 62 70 75 79 79 18HR AGO 65 64 63 60 58 53 48 44 41 45 48 54 61 69 74 78 78 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 56 51 46 42 39 43 46 52 59 67 72 76 76 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 48 43 39 36 40 43 49 56 64 69 73 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT