* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 66 64 62 58 56 53 49 40 32 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 70 66 64 62 58 56 53 49 40 32 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 69 65 62 60 57 55 52 46 39 32 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 8 12 12 19 27 39 47 51 54 53 46 35 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 4 6 3 8 8 4 0 5 -3 0 -1 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 204 220 233 237 249 259 229 225 209 222 224 232 236 248 268 289 298 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.3 26.5 26.0 25.8 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.0 24.4 23.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 130 130 130 129 125 128 123 121 122 118 116 112 106 99 89 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -55.4 -56.2 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 46 45 44 44 44 41 40 38 34 27 24 20 19 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 23 22 22 21 22 21 20 17 15 13 12 10 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 58 60 61 57 64 59 61 45 38 21 5 2 -3 -16 -33 -57 -77 200 MB DIV 7 4 9 17 5 13 19 32 33 14 -2 11 -4 -13 -45 -48 -53 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 2 0 2 4 14 16 18 17 9 2 -4 -10 -18 -27 LAND (KM) 1443 1302 1161 1041 921 727 591 520 515 547 620 720 824 936 1096 1280 1464 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.5 21.2 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.1 27.5 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.0 142.4 143.7 144.9 146.0 147.9 149.4 150.6 151.7 152.8 153.9 154.8 155.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 5 6 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -25. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -21. -28. -35. -42. -46. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -13. -17. -19. -22. -26. -35. -43. -53. -59. -69. -77. -87. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.9 141.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 598.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/04/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING