* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 57 59 59 61 61 63 60 61 65 68 67 66 66 67 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 57 59 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 60 62 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 14 11 17 17 13 16 17 20 28 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -4 -6 -8 -5 -4 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 301 318 293 299 340 334 322 288 290 262 260 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 158 156 154 149 160 165 164 166 165 164 157 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 144 140 137 131 137 138 135 133 131 131 125 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -55.0 -54.3 -53.7 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 10 6 10 5 8 2 6 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 65 65 66 69 73 78 81 77 69 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 9 8 7 6 5 6 10 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -55 -58 -44 -51 -80 -19 -21 -36 -43 -33 -23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 -10 -18 23 29 1 41 -9 39 26 24 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 0 6 15 2 6 4 2 9 15 8 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 105 187 171 137 48 -125 -293 -436 -538 -623 -748 -892 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.1 29.9 31.5 32.7 33.7 34.6 35.3 36.4 37.7 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.4 84.7 86.0 87.1 88.3 90.2 91.7 92.9 93.9 94.5 94.8 94.9 94.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 10 8 7 5 5 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 28 24 21 21 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -10. -5. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. 13. 10. 11. 15. 18. 17. 16. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.7 83.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.0% 10.2% 7.4% 6.3% 9.0% 11.2% 11.4% Logistic: 4.0% 27.3% 15.6% 9.4% 6.0% 11.4% 13.2% 21.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.7% 15.5% 8.7% 5.6% 4.1% 6.9% 8.2% 10.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/04/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 57 59 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 55 36 27 24 23 23 23 23 24 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 50 31 22 19 18 18 18 18 19 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT