* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 59 58 52 49 48 48 48 50 54 61 64 71 77 77 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 59 58 52 49 48 48 48 50 54 61 64 71 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 61 59 55 52 50 50 50 53 59 65 73 80 84 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 19 16 19 23 20 20 17 21 15 15 16 20 18 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 9 5 7 5 10 7 4 4 -1 3 -2 -6 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 224 232 244 244 240 249 252 258 266 271 249 259 215 189 176 133 98 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 25.9 26.6 27.0 27.6 27.8 28.3 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 115 117 113 120 125 132 134 140 150 152 153 152 151 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 108 109 105 112 114 119 119 123 130 130 129 127 127 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -53.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 51 51 51 51 51 54 56 57 57 55 57 55 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 19 19 17 16 17 18 18 19 20 23 24 29 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 91 77 67 59 55 34 3 -17 -25 -25 -26 -22 -9 42 55 49 32 200 MB DIV 21 22 11 -7 -17 -5 14 45 5 -2 -7 5 14 34 0 22 19 700-850 TADV 9 12 20 17 16 9 13 5 9 9 3 3 4 2 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2017 1963 1916 1881 1854 1852 1751 1583 1456 1390 1366 1362 1358 1370 1384 1432 1418 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.0 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.3 25.4 26.5 27.5 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.5 42.7 43.8 45.0 47.2 49.4 51.4 53.2 54.6 55.8 56.9 57.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 3 8 0 6 15 12 15 19 24 24 25 25 26 33 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -2. -1. 4. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -9. -6. 1. 4. 11. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.7 40.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.44 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 14.1% 9.7% 7.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 4.1% 2.0% 2.1% 1.6% 4.3% 3.0% 2.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.7% 4.0% 3.3% 2.8% 1.5% 1.0% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 61 59 58 52 49 48 48 48 50 54 61 64 71 77 77 18HR AGO 60 59 59 57 56 50 47 46 46 46 48 52 59 62 69 75 75 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 53 47 44 43 43 43 45 49 56 59 66 72 72 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 43 40 39 39 39 41 45 52 55 62 68 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT