* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 61 61 59 55 51 48 46 45 45 49 52 61 67 70 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 61 61 59 55 51 48 46 45 45 49 52 61 67 70 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 62 63 61 57 54 51 51 52 53 55 60 67 74 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 15 17 17 20 24 19 23 19 23 20 22 14 12 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 5 4 3 7 9 8 9 6 0 2 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 230 233 236 249 250 245 257 257 275 270 284 275 284 225 188 148 95 SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.8 26.8 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 114 115 115 114 123 122 132 135 140 149 150 155 153 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 107 108 108 106 114 113 120 121 123 130 130 133 130 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -54.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 54 52 52 49 50 50 51 54 58 61 58 59 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 20 19 17 16 15 16 16 16 19 19 23 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 108 95 90 78 72 60 29 9 -18 -32 -27 -23 -18 -9 8 22 19 200 MB DIV 14 25 13 21 21 -2 20 35 24 10 17 9 19 18 26 -15 36 700-850 TADV 12 10 5 6 13 18 8 11 7 6 11 5 8 2 3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2146 2069 1997 1939 1888 1830 1813 1707 1537 1410 1338 1277 1242 1224 1240 1270 1322 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.9 20.8 21.9 23.0 24.1 25.1 25.8 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.3 40.7 41.8 43.0 45.3 47.6 49.8 51.8 53.6 55.0 56.3 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 4 5 2 0 7 8 12 16 19 24 23 28 32 34 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -9. -9. -3. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -6. -3. 6. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.3 38.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 17.6% 11.5% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 14.1% 8.7% 6.1% 3.5% 9.0% 4.0% 3.2% Bayesian: 10.3% 7.1% 2.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.0% 13.0% 7.7% 5.6% 1.3% 3.1% 4.3% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 60 61 61 59 55 51 48 46 45 45 49 52 61 67 70 18HR AGO 55 54 56 57 57 55 51 47 44 42 41 41 45 48 57 63 66 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 50 46 42 39 37 36 36 40 43 52 58 61 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 43 39 35 32 30 29 29 33 36 45 51 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT