* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 42 42 44 48 51 54 56 55 51 48 46 44 45 44 45 V (KT) LAND 40 40 42 42 44 48 51 54 56 55 51 48 46 44 45 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 42 44 44 42 39 36 32 28 26 24 23 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 12 14 18 19 17 14 14 10 7 5 6 3 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 6 5 6 3 7 8 4 0 -1 -4 -5 -2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 45 54 60 61 53 58 48 61 61 57 46 56 27 23 321 293 237 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.9 28.0 27.3 26.2 25.6 24.9 24.9 25.1 24.5 24.8 24.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 148 148 143 145 138 127 121 113 113 115 108 111 111 117 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 64 61 59 54 53 50 49 46 44 42 41 41 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 19 19 22 22 22 21 21 18 16 14 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -17 -5 3 16 36 39 37 54 46 46 23 16 -18 -27 -38 -7 200 MB DIV 17 21 30 30 9 20 11 26 11 8 4 8 4 5 -4 12 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -4 -8 -4 -8 -14 -4 -4 0 0 4 1 LAND (KM) 772 793 819 864 913 1002 1121 1272 1396 1560 1768 1929 1956 1712 1517 1356 1209 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.5 115.1 115.8 116.6 118.4 120.5 122.8 125.3 128.0 130.8 133.6 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 24 20 17 14 12 22 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 15. 11. 8. 6. 4. 5. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 113.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.99 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 18.9% 11.7% 11.5% 0.0% 12.3% 12.7% 13.9% Logistic: 0.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 7.3% 4.2% 4.0% 0.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##