* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072018 09/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 44 49 51 54 56 60 67 76 84 89 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 38 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 5 12 14 9 16 8 13 9 13 8 11 13 8 21 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 -4 -4 0 0 3 1 6 SHEAR DIR 306 320 290 290 307 306 331 355 341 337 325 316 261 258 310 272 271 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.5 29.0 29.1 28.9 30.1 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.6 29.9 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 171 162 153 154 151 171 170 169 169 168 168 168 166 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 158 158 149 140 138 131 147 150 151 152 150 146 141 133 126 123 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -53.9 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 8 9 7 8 5 7 5 8 5 9 5 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 66 65 68 65 70 70 76 77 78 72 61 46 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 9 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 11 17 20 14 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -29 -22 -25 -48 -38 -81 -35 -31 3 -29 -5 -28 8 -14 -7 -29 200 MB DIV -8 10 30 35 -1 31 3 19 29 14 13 41 24 -14 -5 10 10 700-850 TADV 2 1 -3 -2 1 5 12 6 2 10 2 11 5 8 12 22 20 LAND (KM) 145 35 74 148 233 163 -5 -165 -290 -388 -467 -536 -597 -652 -737 -867 -994 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.9 25.6 26.3 27.0 28.5 29.9 31.3 32.4 33.2 33.8 34.3 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.6 81.0 82.3 83.6 85.0 87.6 89.8 91.7 93.2 94.2 95.0 95.6 95.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 7 5 4 3 3 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 49 41 39 27 29 23 24 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 38. 42. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -6. -1. 6. 8. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 19. 24. 26. 29. 31. 35. 42. 51. 59. 64. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.1 79.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.88 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.8% 8.3% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 28.0% 14.8% 4.6% 2.7% 11.8% 23.0% 51.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.4% 13.8% 7.7% 3.4% 0.9% 4.0% 10.8% 17.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 39 38 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 37 36 30 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 32 26 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT