* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 53 53 52 50 49 51 52 54 57 65 70 77 80 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 53 53 52 50 49 51 52 54 57 65 70 77 80 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 54 53 52 50 50 50 53 56 62 71 80 90 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 14 17 14 19 12 15 13 16 11 12 4 8 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 3 3 5 4 10 8 10 7 6 1 2 0 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 234 224 225 223 234 238 235 243 249 260 262 281 270 149 187 149 146 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.9 27.0 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 113 114 115 116 117 124 124 133 136 141 147 150 155 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 107 107 108 109 109 114 114 121 122 124 127 129 134 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 54 53 51 52 49 49 49 50 53 56 58 54 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 21 20 19 20 20 18 18 19 19 20 21 25 27 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 113 107 100 92 79 66 48 25 5 -11 -20 -17 -12 -1 4 50 62 200 MB DIV 13 21 29 27 13 4 11 47 23 43 21 20 9 41 25 41 25 700-850 TADV 11 16 14 8 5 13 15 8 15 7 7 7 3 2 4 0 1 LAND (KM) 2065 2138 2064 1998 1929 1843 1804 1745 1626 1446 1317 1250 1202 1169 1168 1191 1233 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.4 20.1 20.9 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.9 39.3 40.5 41.8 44.1 46.3 48.5 50.6 52.7 54.5 55.9 57.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 4 4 4 2 8 7 14 18 21 24 25 31 35 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -8. -8. -7. -2. -0. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 20. 27. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.9 36.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.4% 9.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 7.0% 3.5% 2.9% 1.8% 6.9% 5.0% 2.8% Bayesian: 6.4% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 8.5% 4.8% 3.5% 0.6% 2.4% 1.7% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 53 53 53 52 50 49 51 52 54 57 65 70 77 80 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 50 50 49 47 46 48 49 51 54 62 67 74 77 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 46 45 43 42 44 45 47 50 58 63 70 73 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 39 37 36 38 39 41 44 52 57 64 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT