* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 41 41 45 51 60 61 66 65 63 60 59 58 58 57 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 41 41 45 51 60 61 66 65 63 60 59 58 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 42 43 45 46 45 42 39 36 34 33 32 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 12 12 12 20 16 15 17 13 11 6 2 3 4 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 7 6 2 6 7 8 5 4 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 56 48 51 62 66 49 61 54 65 40 40 28 270 270 279 308 240 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.5 27.9 27.0 26.7 25.3 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.5 24.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 147 145 144 150 144 135 132 118 116 113 109 108 106 115 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 72 72 68 65 62 59 57 52 51 48 47 47 45 44 44 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 21 20 22 25 29 27 29 28 27 24 23 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -23 -17 -5 6 28 49 41 56 68 72 55 48 26 0 -19 6 200 MB DIV 36 30 23 36 23 38 25 25 6 11 35 -1 -11 12 0 8 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -6 -2 -11 -6 -9 -10 -8 2 0 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 746 756 771 801 836 937 1045 1184 1331 1481 1674 1873 1989 1823 1603 1394 1209 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.7 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.0 114.5 115.2 115.8 117.5 119.5 121.7 124.2 126.9 129.7 132.6 135.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 16 12 11 11 20 15 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 7. 13. 12. 15. 13. 11. 6. 5. 1. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 1. 5. 11. 20. 21. 26. 25. 23. 20. 19. 18. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 113.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.15 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.98 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 17.7% 14.3% 9.6% 0.0% 12.4% 12.7% 14.4% Logistic: 0.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.7% 5.0% 3.3% 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##