* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 108 102 98 85 74 67 63 60 52 46 41 29 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 112 108 102 98 85 74 67 63 60 52 46 41 29 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 109 102 95 87 75 66 61 58 54 49 44 37 30 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 5 6 12 14 14 13 23 31 44 50 53 56 56 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 9 7 5 0 2 3 1 7 3 2 3 1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 116 140 143 144 147 197 212 253 235 236 218 222 214 223 223 231 237 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.6 26.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.5 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 132 132 123 125 125 126 124 124 123 121 120 117 114 107 103 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 50 51 51 47 47 42 45 45 47 48 48 43 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 27 25 27 25 23 23 22 24 21 21 21 17 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 103 101 89 82 67 63 56 57 55 56 39 25 18 7 -11 -17 3 200 MB DIV 55 25 7 19 45 13 11 7 9 16 30 34 36 24 17 9 1 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -5 -7 0 5 5 3 7 7 16 18 29 17 8 6 0 LAND (KM) 2010 2137 2054 1884 1715 1401 1154 930 762 663 635 656 708 767 873 1024 1165 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.6 22.6 23.9 25.3 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.8 133.5 135.2 136.8 138.4 141.4 143.8 146.0 147.8 149.3 150.7 151.9 153.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 13 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 3 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -11. -19. -27. -36. -44. -50. -55. -59. -61. -63. -65. -69. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -20. -28. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -4. -8. -8. -7. -10. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -17. -30. -41. -48. -52. -55. -63. -69. -74. -86. -93.-102.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.4 131.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 914.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/03/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 19 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##