* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072018 09/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 52 55 59 59 61 64 73 81 89 100 96 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 52 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 35 41 47 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 2 8 10 8 13 11 12 9 11 4 5 7 6 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -7 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 0 0 3 3 2 7 SHEAR DIR 272 300 336 297 285 329 308 344 352 6 347 343 317 245 6 328 284 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 30.5 31.0 31.2 31.2 31.3 31.3 31.1 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 156 163 162 158 158 157 171 170 169 168 168 167 169 168 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 145 151 149 143 140 136 153 158 157 153 154 152 151 133 130 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -54.6 -54.1 -54.6 -53.8 -53.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 7 10 7 10 6 10 6 12 4 15 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 66 66 65 67 67 68 72 74 75 73 67 53 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 6 6 5 5 5 7 10 15 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -24 -31 -22 -20 -56 -43 -76 -52 -37 -5 -11 -6 -8 -27 -13 -31 200 MB DIV 12 0 7 24 24 -7 20 -5 28 4 33 18 35 -10 -26 11 13 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 1 2 9 3 3 5 5 8 11 2 18 11 25 LAND (KM) 94 118 84 76 145 283 105 -22 -141 -279 -390 -459 -517 -564 -623 -702 -801 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.1 25.8 27.2 28.6 29.9 31.1 32.3 33.2 33.7 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.0 79.3 80.6 81.9 83.2 85.8 88.2 90.4 92.1 93.4 94.4 95.1 95.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 3 3 2 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 58 43 43 35 30 34 25 21 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 38. 43. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -5. -2. 3. 10. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 27. 30. 34. 34. 36. 39. 48. 56. 64. 75. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.0 78.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.84 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.6% 10.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 39.5% 23.4% 6.5% 3.3% 18.1% 38.9% 62.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 3.4% 20.3% 11.7% 4.6% 1.1% 6.1% 17.0% 20.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 43 52 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 48 39 28 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 42 33 22 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT