* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 45 41 40 41 42 44 49 50 61 66 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 45 41 40 41 42 44 49 50 61 66 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 46 46 45 43 40 38 38 40 43 46 52 62 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 12 15 19 22 21 26 22 23 21 20 15 9 13 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 2 2 0 2 3 5 7 9 5 5 2 2 0 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 234 241 237 235 238 253 238 249 247 255 255 268 246 262 193 187 193 SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 25.8 26.4 27.2 27.5 28.3 28.5 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 113 114 114 115 112 118 126 130 141 144 152 151 152 155 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 107 107 107 107 104 109 115 118 128 128 132 129 130 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 56 55 54 53 52 51 52 52 50 53 55 54 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 20 20 20 17 17 18 18 18 20 20 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 122 113 109 100 95 71 58 33 10 -22 -24 -37 -27 -27 -23 14 16 200 MB DIV 8 12 14 26 17 8 -2 25 11 24 8 -2 4 4 7 -10 -18 700-850 TADV 9 8 13 13 9 13 17 15 14 9 1 0 -3 -2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1917 2068 2146 2080 2019 1918 1879 1871 1785 1622 1479 1361 1292 1239 1220 1249 1293 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.4 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.9 24.0 25.2 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.6 38.0 39.3 40.5 42.8 44.9 47.0 49.0 50.9 52.8 54.8 56.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 9 7 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 5 21 11 18 21 26 24 24 29 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -8. -9. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 4. 5. 16. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.8 35.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.53 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.8% 7.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.1% 2.2% 2.0% 1.5% 5.1% 3.3% 3.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.5% 3.3% 2.6% 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 45 41 40 41 42 44 49 50 61 66 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 45 45 45 44 40 39 40 41 43 48 49 60 65 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 41 41 40 36 35 36 37 39 44 45 56 61 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 35 34 30 29 30 31 33 38 39 50 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT