* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 50 54 61 66 72 71 69 68 65 60 60 58 57 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 50 54 61 66 72 71 69 68 65 60 60 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 53 58 60 59 59 58 54 49 44 40 37 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 9 12 16 16 15 17 15 12 6 5 6 6 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 7 8 8 6 7 8 9 7 0 -2 2 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 17 34 55 52 47 49 56 53 35 50 39 86 150 176 230 250 266 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.0 28.4 28.1 26.9 26.7 25.5 24.8 24.4 24.5 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 154 152 148 144 148 145 133 132 120 113 108 109 104 104 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 67 66 61 58 54 52 51 53 54 52 49 47 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 19 20 23 27 28 30 28 27 26 24 20 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -40 -21 -15 -9 19 33 47 50 52 45 32 21 35 15 6 -17 200 MB DIV 43 48 43 31 37 26 22 7 3 12 8 27 18 -9 2 -2 5 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -12 -11 -13 -7 1 2 0 4 1 LAND (KM) 705 686 672 680 692 782 894 1007 1135 1266 1391 1573 1788 1908 1889 1674 1466 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.8 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.7 113.1 113.6 114.1 115.6 117.4 119.2 121.2 123.4 125.8 128.5 131.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 8 9 9 10 11 13 14 14 14 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 17 15 11 11 19 22 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. 19. 18. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 13. 19. 16. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 21. 26. 32. 31. 29. 28. 25. 20. 20. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.9 112.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 23.5% 16.0% 15.5% 0.0% 16.2% 14.6% 14.8% Logistic: 0.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.9% 5.7% 5.3% 0.0% 5.7% 5.0% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##