* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 121 121 118 110 97 81 69 62 59 56 52 48 42 39 35 30 V (KT) LAND 115 121 121 118 110 97 81 69 62 59 56 52 48 42 39 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 115 120 117 109 101 87 75 67 63 60 57 53 48 42 37 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 8 6 6 12 12 12 11 21 23 33 32 40 43 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 7 7 5 -1 0 3 1 5 6 5 10 6 5 0 SHEAR DIR 29 59 114 145 134 156 190 213 241 220 225 218 228 219 228 232 243 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.2 25.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 135 132 131 124 124 124 126 126 126 125 123 123 125 120 114 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 55 54 53 52 48 46 42 42 42 47 48 50 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 28 30 28 27 26 24 24 23 24 23 23 21 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 106 109 112 113 98 67 65 47 41 53 51 36 39 31 19 0 0 200 MB DIV 40 51 45 27 3 14 13 12 12 15 16 51 37 37 20 35 5 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -1 -3 -3 -2 6 5 4 9 14 21 21 31 25 23 10 LAND (KM) 1788 1888 1997 2109 2107 1757 1454 1195 963 746 586 503 456 455 535 648 769 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.8 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.7 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.9 131.5 133.1 134.7 138.0 140.9 143.4 145.7 147.9 149.8 151.3 152.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 15 13 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 6 3 2 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -16. -26. -35. -42. -49. -54. -57. -59. -61. -63. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. -0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. -8. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 6. 3. -5. -18. -34. -46. -53. -56. -59. -63. -66. -73. -76. -80. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.4 128.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 765.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 29.6% 11.3% 20.5% 9.5% 5.6% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.5% 3.8% 6.8% 3.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##