* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 61 66 72 74 73 73 71 66 64 61 60 60 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 61 66 72 74 73 73 71 66 64 61 60 60 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 53 60 65 66 63 60 56 51 46 42 39 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 7 11 21 20 22 19 19 14 14 8 4 3 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 7 5 7 5 5 12 7 2 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 5 19 38 56 69 67 56 57 45 52 45 33 56 97 114 37 124 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.4 27.5 27.2 26.0 25.8 26.0 25.9 25.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 152 146 145 146 149 140 137 125 123 124 123 118 114 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 72 70 67 61 58 55 58 54 52 50 49 45 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 22 23 27 27 27 27 27 24 23 19 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -50 -49 -37 -26 8 26 45 48 76 70 59 52 51 42 21 23 200 MB DIV 67 48 47 42 32 54 12 25 4 39 29 6 19 3 -2 -30 2 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -8 -11 -12 -17 -4 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 814 803 798 800 808 879 982 1081 1205 1354 1498 1656 1836 2036 1966 1732 1513 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.3 19.0 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.5 113.0 113.6 114.2 115.6 117.1 118.8 120.8 123.0 125.4 128.1 130.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 13 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 27 24 20 12 11 13 20 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 6. 9. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 11. 9. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 21. 26. 32. 34. 33. 33. 31. 26. 24. 21. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.8 111.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 19.6% 19.4% 15.1% 0.0% 15.4% 13.8% 13.9% Logistic: 1.0% 7.7% 2.9% 1.5% 0.4% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 10.9% 7.8% 5.6% 0.2% 5.8% 5.3% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##