* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 09/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 32 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 32 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 31 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 51 52 47 48 46 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 -2 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 224 220 221 216 224 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.4 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 110 109 109 107 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 49 47 44 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -21 -23 -12 -24 -48 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 25 22 24 44 30 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 24 31 26 21 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1403 1368 1344 1308 1282 1207 1167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.0 28.2 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.0 142.7 143.4 144.3 145.2 147.3 149.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -22. -39. -53. -64. -69. -73. -76. -82. -91. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -16. -19. -23. -29. -39. -51. -62. -72. -79. -85. -93.-100.-110.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.8 142.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 09/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 09/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##