* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 57 59 62 63 61 61 58 57 54 51 47 54 59 65 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 57 59 62 63 61 61 58 57 54 51 47 54 59 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 58 60 61 62 61 59 57 56 55 54 57 62 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 11 9 17 18 24 19 25 21 18 11 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 0 2 0 5 2 8 9 8 7 6 6 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 172 238 281 241 228 253 222 249 240 255 254 269 256 266 244 303 195 SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.4 29.1 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 112 110 111 113 117 118 124 127 129 130 131 140 152 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 108 108 105 106 107 110 110 116 117 119 117 116 122 132 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 63 63 64 62 58 57 56 55 54 52 51 51 52 54 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 22 23 23 21 22 22 22 21 20 18 22 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR 122 120 120 123 124 112 92 55 55 24 4 -23 -22 -42 -33 -36 -27 200 MB DIV 44 24 26 19 15 4 25 5 7 -5 18 25 27 14 3 18 19 700-850 TADV -1 3 4 2 3 13 18 20 26 23 14 13 3 12 4 1 2 LAND (KM) 1291 1438 1584 1731 1878 2135 2017 1929 1880 1874 1800 1635 1522 1461 1416 1377 1358 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.1 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.5 30.8 32.2 33.5 34.9 37.6 40.0 42.2 44.5 46.7 48.8 50.8 52.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 12 11 11 12 11 11 9 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 8 9 24 11 13 20 24 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -5. -4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 16. 16. 13. 12. 9. 6. 2. 9. 14. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 29.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.91 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 22.1% 16.2% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 28.1% 15.7% 10.7% 8.0% 22.7% 9.9% 6.2% Bayesian: 7.7% 24.0% 4.8% 1.5% 1.0% 6.0% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 7.7% 24.7% 12.3% 7.4% 3.0% 9.6% 3.7% 2.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 57 59 62 63 61 61 58 57 54 51 47 54 59 65 18HR AGO 45 44 49 52 54 57 58 56 56 53 52 49 46 42 49 54 60 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 49 50 48 48 45 44 41 38 34 41 46 52 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 41 39 39 36 35 32 29 25 32 37 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT