* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 09/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 55 44 35 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 55 44 35 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 57 48 41 34 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 36 41 47 50 48 48 44 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 15 13 7 0 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 228 224 219 219 214 223 228 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.3 24.5 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 115 114 112 110 106 108 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 54 50 45 43 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 14 13 12 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 17 -9 -18 -20 -16 -42 -58 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 46 44 32 26 52 28 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 20 23 27 33 20 29 20 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1444 1409 1384 1344 1316 1281 1252 1254 1300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.3 27.1 28.7 30.3 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.1 141.6 142.1 142.8 143.6 145.3 147.2 149.3 151.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -27. -36. -46. -54. -58. -63. -67. -72. -77. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 4. 3. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -21. -30. -37. -46. -55. -62. -67. -73. -80. -85. -91. -98.-102.-108.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.7 141.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 09/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 09/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##