* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 82 76 74 72 70 66 67 64 64 65 65 66 65 63 60 V (KT) LAND 95 87 82 76 74 72 70 66 67 64 64 65 65 66 65 63 60 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 85 81 78 74 69 63 59 56 54 54 55 56 56 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 19 19 14 13 17 8 9 6 7 3 5 16 18 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 5 4 5 8 8 6 0 4 1 5 4 11 5 10 SHEAR DIR 49 58 60 78 85 96 131 138 149 180 215 229 206 218 208 217 226 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 26.7 26.8 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.3 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 147 144 142 133 133 123 123 122 124 123 124 126 122 120 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 62 61 54 54 51 49 46 43 44 46 46 43 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 27 28 29 29 26 26 24 24 24 24 25 24 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 88 87 93 105 116 118 114 82 76 69 71 68 64 42 35 30 20 200 MB DIV 22 36 38 18 30 36 10 5 1 0 3 15 20 36 28 33 35 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -6 -5 2 -1 0 6 1 4 3 5 11 13 15 LAND (KM) 1421 1504 1591 1680 1752 1932 2149 1954 1664 1411 1204 1013 847 709 600 546 508 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.6 124.6 125.8 127.1 130.0 133.1 136.2 138.9 141.3 143.3 145.2 146.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 14 13 11 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 15 12 18 3 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -32. -34. -36. -38. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -7. -4. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. -0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -19. -21. -23. -25. -29. -28. -31. -31. -30. -30. -29. -30. -32. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.3 122.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 445.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##