* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 09/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 48 53 58 61 65 65 62 62 60 61 59 62 62 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 48 53 58 61 65 65 62 62 60 61 59 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 51 56 60 62 60 58 58 57 57 57 57 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 7 6 3 3 2 11 13 13 19 16 18 16 22 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 1 -1 -1 3 4 3 6 12 6 10 11 9 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 98 118 109 135 158 309 249 265 247 244 244 246 241 237 228 214 215 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.2 26.1 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.2 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 122 117 116 110 112 116 118 122 126 126 127 130 137 141 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 118 113 112 105 106 109 111 114 116 114 113 114 118 120 117 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 67 68 64 61 56 56 52 52 52 52 50 50 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 23 23 23 25 24 25 25 23 24 23 25 24 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 80 95 102 109 118 122 112 95 82 55 31 7 -2 -15 -28 -23 -2 200 MB DIV 25 31 30 53 42 25 24 14 15 -1 -13 38 35 39 5 15 5 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -2 0 1 5 10 18 17 22 21 20 20 15 8 3 1 LAND (KM) 927 1058 1192 1332 1473 1755 2027 2080 1994 1944 1954 1988 1914 1828 1797 1806 1815 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.6 17.3 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.1 22.3 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.1 27.4 28.6 29.9 31.2 33.8 36.3 38.7 41.1 43.3 45.2 46.7 48.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 6 10 15 11 13 12 16 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -0. 0. -0. -5. -4. -6. -4. -6. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 23. 26. 30. 30. 27. 27. 25. 26. 24. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 26.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 09/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 20.3% 12.1% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.3% 42.9% 26.5% 11.5% 9.6% 26.3% 22.9% 10.0% Bayesian: 6.9% 30.7% 7.2% 0.7% 0.6% 6.6% 3.5% 0.5% Consensus: 10.0% 31.3% 15.3% 6.8% 3.4% 11.0% 8.8% 3.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 09/01/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 45 48 53 58 61 65 65 62 62 60 61 59 62 62 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 48 53 56 60 60 57 57 55 56 54 57 57 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 42 47 50 54 54 51 51 49 50 48 51 51 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 38 41 45 45 42 42 40 41 39 42 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT