* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 09/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 64 55 44 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 73 64 55 44 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 68 59 50 35 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 36 37 38 41 53 51 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 9 14 14 1 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 228 229 222 218 220 218 227 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 25.7 25.2 25.0 24.7 24.2 24.1 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 120 115 113 111 106 104 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 59 57 48 44 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 17 16 13 10 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 42 35 27 1 -19 -27 -43 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 58 47 60 55 29 33 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 22 24 24 18 28 23 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1443 1429 1423 1395 1377 1322 1292 1276 1309 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.6 25.6 27.5 29.2 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.0 141.2 141.3 141.8 142.2 143.7 145.5 147.4 149.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -23. -26. -29. -32. -34. -36. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -12. -15. -22. -26. -31. -38. -46. -53. -58. -62. -67. -72. -75. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. -0. -2. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -18. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -16. -25. -36. -51. -63. -72. -77. -83. -89. -95.-102.-109.-115.-120.-118. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.7 141.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 09/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 467.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 09/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##