* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/31/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 99 91 86 82 75 75 72 69 66 62 62 62 62 64 63 59 V (KT) LAND 110 99 91 86 82 75 75 72 69 66 62 62 62 62 64 63 59 V (KT) LGEM 110 103 97 93 89 82 76 70 62 57 53 52 52 52 53 52 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 23 21 18 19 15 13 9 14 7 5 6 12 20 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 1 6 10 4 1 2 4 0 4 6 6 3 SHEAR DIR 66 63 65 60 55 79 96 131 120 136 164 214 211 235 232 219 226 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.0 27.5 26.4 26.4 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 150 151 145 141 129 129 123 125 124 123 125 125 126 123 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 64 65 60 62 61 61 57 54 51 48 45 43 43 45 44 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 28 29 27 29 28 26 25 23 23 23 23 25 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 66 84 82 81 85 106 109 103 86 84 77 81 65 65 42 30 24 200 MB DIV 9 14 12 31 27 16 31 16 0 5 -4 19 22 14 17 32 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 1 -2 3 3 4 4 3 9 15 11 LAND (KM) 1291 1367 1444 1524 1607 1768 1939 2129 2007 1718 1464 1244 1051 875 732 641 584 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.0 122.8 123.8 124.8 127.2 130.0 132.8 135.7 138.4 140.8 142.9 144.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 14 14 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 16 19 14 18 2 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -15. -24. -31. -37. -42. -46. -47. -49. -51. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -16. -12. -7. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -6. -6. -6. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -24. -28. -35. -35. -38. -41. -44. -48. -48. -48. -48. -46. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.6 121.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/31/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##