* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 08/31/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 53 58 63 65 67 69 65 64 61 67 69 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 53 58 63 65 67 69 65 64 61 67 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 51 54 56 55 54 52 51 50 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 2 4 3 1 7 6 14 16 24 19 23 23 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 5 7 2 0 2 1 8 7 7 3 8 5 6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 74 100 111 35 39 104 286 250 246 238 243 240 240 229 223 218 198 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.1 25.8 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.9 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 125 124 125 116 113 117 117 117 120 124 126 128 134 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 128 122 121 122 111 108 112 110 110 111 114 114 115 117 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 71 70 69 65 61 56 57 55 53 51 50 50 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 21 22 23 22 23 22 23 22 23 24 21 22 21 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 64 73 88 102 114 126 128 117 101 85 49 30 15 -1 -7 -5 -4 200 MB DIV 18 15 27 42 48 19 6 -4 0 31 17 -6 17 6 23 6 21 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 -4 -6 0 3 5 15 15 21 22 16 10 9 5 4 LAND (KM) 709 837 968 1101 1235 1505 1786 2079 2030 1967 1943 1980 1991 1869 1806 1781 1769 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.2 18.0 19.0 20.1 21.4 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.0 25.3 26.5 27.8 29.0 31.5 34.1 36.8 39.3 41.5 43.5 45.3 47.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 6 3 3 6 0 0 0 1 3 5 15 10 11 15 19 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -6. -6. -8. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 28. 33. 35. 37. 39. 35. 34. 32. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 24.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 08/31/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.81 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.0% 10.3% 6.8% 6.0% 9.2% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 23.7% 12.7% 3.3% 2.6% 9.0% 10.9% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 6.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 4.1% 0.2% Consensus: 4.1% 15.2% 8.1% 3.4% 2.9% 6.6% 9.1% 1.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 08/31/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 46 53 58 63 65 67 69 65 64 61 67 69 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 43 50 55 60 62 64 66 62 61 58 64 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 45 50 55 57 59 61 57 56 53 59 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 36 41 46 48 50 52 48 47 44 50 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT